Polarization makes us more paranoid — and paranoia makes us more polarized

On the self-reinforcing relationship between conspiracy-minded thinking and us-vs-them mindsets

A primary goal of my work is helping people see the various self-reinforcing aspects of toxic conflict: how we are caught in a vicious cycle that is self-amplifying. When one sees that aspect of our conflict, one will be better able to speak and act in ways that help defuse that cycle in various ways (even as one may also at the same time be working against one’s adversaries).

Below is an excerpt that appears in different forms in my books Defusing American Anger (Amazon link) and How Contempt Destroys Democracy (Amazon link) (learn more about my books).

Excerpt from chapter “Animosity makes us paranoid and conspiracy-minded”

Earlier, we discussed how the out-group homogeneity effect makes us see the “other side” as all the same. This can in turn make us more conspiracy-minded and paranoid. We’ll be more likely to perceive connections between the actions of people on the “other side” that aren’t really there.

For example, a liberal person might see similarities in thinking between a far-right extremist group and conservative Supreme Court justices. They may have a feeling that these things are connected; that these assorted people and groups are working together in some malicious and underhanded way to achieve some aligned, coherent goal.

Or a conservative person might see similarities between the things a militant antifa person has said and things a Democrat leader has said, and feel that these things are connected. They may suspect that powerful liberal forces are collaborating and working toward some sinister outcome.

The more polarized we become, the more paranoid we become.

And people’s conspiracy-minded thinking will be mocked and derided by their political opponents. When we can’t even understand the more rational beliefs of the other side, their more paranoid and conspiracy-minded beliefs will of course strike us as even more dangerous and scary.

And because we view the other side as largely all-the-same, we’ll tend to view their wacky and conspiratorial beliefs as being more prevalent than they really are, increasing our fear and anger (that old polarization feedback cycle).

For example, when a Democrat sees a Trump voter saying that Satanic pedophiles are running the government, it’s easy for liberals to see Trump voters, as a group, as deranged and hysterical. And similarly, when a Republican sees a Democrat say something like, “Trump is purposefully downplaying Covid to kill minorities,” it’s easy for them to see liberals, as a group, as deranged and hysterical.

But most of us don’t believe in the most extreme and outlandish conspiracy theories. During my research, I talked to a Trump voter who said he thought liberals made too much of a deal about nutty right-wing conspiracies, and that he personally knew no Republican who believed in QAnon-like things. (I did point out to him that such beliefs seemed to be more prevalent than he thought they were.) A few weeks later he emailed to tell me he’d met a right-wing QAnon believer in person. He said, “Now I get why people think Trump supporters are nuts!” The point is that it’s easy for us to be oblivious about why the other side thinks we’re so crazy.

And for the purposes of reducing political contempt, it helps to see that there’s a good amount of conspiracy-minded thinking across the political spectrum. In a 2021 interview with Matthew Grossman, conspiracy theory researcher Joe Uscinski said the following:

There’s always been this view that the right does it more than the left. But in surveys, when we measure generalized conspiracy thinking, we don’t find that it’s more the right than the left. When we look at large groups of conspiracy theories, we find that the left is just as likely to buy in as people on the right. [...]

What a lot of this comes down to is what’s the media paying attention to, and given the biases in the media, oftentimes they’re going to pay more attention to the conspiracy theories that the other guy believes, that the other side buys into, and they’ll ignore the ones on their own side, right?

And there are psychological reasons for that. Our conspiracy theories aren’t conspiracy theories, they’re conspiracy facts. It’s the other guys’ conspiracy theories that are conspiracy theories.

Uscinski and his colleagues wrote the paper “American politics in two dimensions,” which examined how conspiracy theory beliefs were highly correlated with anti-establishment beliefs. And there are a lot of people across the political spectrum who have anti-establishment beliefs.

To reduce our own team-based animosity, it’s helpful to see that conspiracy-minded thinking is a human problem, and that no group holds a monopoly on overly pessimistic and fearful ways of thinking (even as we may think that one side is worse).

A 2021 YouGov survey found that many people believe that “no matter who’s elected or officially in charge, there’s a secret group of people who control events and rule the world.” This included 52% of Republicans and 31% of Democrats.

It’s also true that there can be some common liberal-side beliefs that are paranoid and conspiracy-minded but that are seldom categorized as such in liberal-leaning spaces.

For example, there are many liberals who believe that Trump is a Russian asset: that he’s controlled by Russia. Could such a thing be possible? Sure, it could be. If it came out that Russia had compromising material on Trump and had influenced his actions, it wouldn’t surprise me. But there’s no convincing evidence for that. Paranoid, conspiracy-minded thinking is defined by high levels of certainty where certainty isn’t warranted. And in this case there’s much reasonable doubt.

There are many liberals who believe that conservative TV host Laura Ingraham purposefully performed a Nazi salute. Quite a few influential people and outlets stated that as if it were a fact. An influential author, A.R. Moxon, posted in 2022, “It truly is wild that nobody talks about the indisputable fact that Laura Ingraham gave a Nazi salute at the Republican National Convention.”

What had happened was that Ingraham had given a wave to the crowd that, for a moment, looked like a Nazi salute. People pointed out that you can find various clips and still shots of other politicians waving (including Hillary Clinton) that also looked like Nazi salutes. Slate.com concluded that odds were high it was a random action without any meaning.

Again: is it possible Laura Ingraham performed a Nazi salute? Yes, it is. But does it make sense to believe that with high certainty? The hallmark of paranoid thinking is perceiving there to be dark, malicious motives and plots lurking behind behaviors and events for which there are much more mundane explanations. Our animosity towards our perceived enemies will often bend our beliefs about them, leading us to embrace dark interpretations of the things they do and say. Can you see how those beliefs in turn amplify tensions?

My point isn’t to argue that conspiracy-minded thinking is equally present or equally harmful on the left and the right. We’ll all have our own takes on that topic. My point is that we tend to focus on the conspiracy-minded thinking of our adversaries, while we tend to avoid focusing on such things when they’re “on our side.” Seeing that this is a human problem — that fear and animosity makes us more pessimistic and paranoid — can help us engage in better, less polarizing ways with our adversaries.

Wrongly labeling people as “conspiracy theorists”

We’re sometimes too quick to label our political opponents as “conspiracy theorists,” and this can be a driver of polarization. For example, the story of Jeffrey Epstein is a disturbing one that seems to involve a lot of rich and powerful people doing very bad things. It’s understandable that people who learn about the details of Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes may think there’s something to the idea that a network of powerful people are sexually exploiting young people — that if Epstein and his enablers can get away with such things for quite a while, maybe other powerful people are doing similar things.

And there are many creepy stories around us that can make us more conspiracy-minded. Another example: Hollywood director Bryan Singer has been accused by several young men of sexual assault. A 2019 Atlantic article detailed the accusations against Singer, with one lawsuit alleging that he was part of a group of powerful entertainment executives who “maintained and exploited boys in a sordid sex ring.”

No matter the truth of that specific allegation, the point is that stories and allegations like these can help us understand why people across the political spectrum can believe or suspect that powerful people are doing very bad things.

There’s also a difference between a suspicion that something very bad may be happening and a confident belief in it; it’s a spectrum. We can sometimes make the mistake of hearing someone say, “I think x might be true” and thinking that that’s no different from them saying, “I think x is true.”

The more we can see the understandable reasons why people find big, secret plots plausible — even if we think they’re very wrong — the more we’ll treat them with respect, and the more we’ll lower animosity. Likewise, the more we avoid inaccurately calling others conspiracy theorists, the more we’ll lower animosity.

This was an abridged version of an essay included in an early version of Defusing American Anger. To read that longer version, see american-anger.com/conspiracy-theories. To see other essays from Defusing American Anger on other contentious topics related to our divides, see american-anger.com/book-excerpts.

One objection to these ideas will go something like, “But sometimes paranoia makes sense; sometimes there actually are very bad things happening.” To be clear: nothing I’ve written here is meant to say that there are never reasons to be concerned about malicious behaviors; after all, the reason toxic polarization is so harmful is that it makes malicious, antisocial behaviors more likely. My goal is just to examine how our tendency to be overly pessimistic can be part of a self-reinforcing cycle. Our tendency to be drawn to overly negative and pessimistic views can actually help manifest the very things we’re most afraid of.